Archives For Economics

A colleague of mine posted one of these videos about an interesting theory (a book) called “The Black Swan” and I picked up on it on my Facebook friend stream. The theory of the Black Swan really captured my imagination because I am an economist by degree, I really love Chaos Theory and I have never heard anyone talking about this particular.  These videos are worth your time, check them out, if you like then follow the links.

The REAL Maverick: Present Economy worse than Depression

Youtube Video description: “Interview with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, famous economist and author of “The Black Swan” and Dr. Mandelbrot, professor of Mathematics. Both say that the present economy more serious than the Great Depression, and the economy during the American Revolution.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb – What is a “Black Swan?”

Interesting no? You can find another full lecture here on FORA.tv if you want to hear more.  Logically Nassim’s Theory of the Black Swan really makes too much sense, and intuitively speaking I am pretty sure that the theory is sound.

We as humans have a tendency to dumb things down into more comprehensible terms for our own comfort because it is easier then learning or explaining something more infinitely complex.  Do you really believe that economics can be dumbed down into simple linear thinking, regressions, basic logic and reason?  Or should we consider that many more things in this universe exist and can effect our realities in absolutely unpredictable ways?  Furthermore how does our grouping and simplifying of things truely effect the decisions that people, leaders and companies make?

Let me know your thoughts as I will be posting more on my views on this in the near future.

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So yeah I think that the title of this blog posting says it all…

There was come decent commentary on iPhone Savior with some supporting articles on ABC and the NY Daily News.  Since I am not a fan of rehashing check out the above links for more commentary and watch these two videos:

And another Walmart customer may have lost her baby because of this incident which makes me very sad (speaking from the father perspective):

Some open questions about this event:

  1. Is Walmart liable for not providing enough security to protect its own employees and patrons?
  2. Can Walmart even be legally charged & what is the legal precedence for this in regards to corporations?
  3. Can a mob of people even be legally prosecuted for this crime?
  4. How can events like this be prevented in the future, given Walmart has no crystal ball?
  5. Should it so how much should the family of the victims receive?
  6. How can we change the culture that encourages or allows for this kind of behavior?

Let me know what you think by leaving a comment, link to sources if you have facts.

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Here this the main reason why I do not participate in consumerist holidays or events.  Both the power and stupidity of “the herd” or “the crowd” mentality is absolutely amazing to me!

Besides, if you think about what your hourly wage is, how much time you have to spend waiting in line or fighting (I guess now it is moshing) with other people to get products then you would realize that you gained absolutely nothing by shopping on Black FridayThe cost in time, transportation, parking, getting up early, the hassle of dealing with other people and now the risk of injury/dying = simply not worth it. Perhaps next year Walmart will think about hiring concert security to ensure the safety of its customers on Black Friday from now on.

I think people really need to stop and ask themselves: is it worth dying or getting killed or killing someone else (directly or indirectly) to get a flat screen TV for $100 cheaper or a bag of waffles for five bucks? If you don’t already know the answer this question, please stop reading this blog and go shopping :)

I will leave you with the Walmart motto “Save Money. Live Better” though it can be kind of hard to do either of these when you are six feet under!

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Over the past week I have been going through the process of redesigning many of my various websites and getting deeper into CSS, XML, and PHP. I made an incredulous discovery that indicates to me we are still in the stone age of economic systems and web development.

We have all this great new stuff like Web 2.0, quad core processors, AJAX, 1-terabyte hard drives, liquid cooling systems for processors, great wiki software and yet…we still have only 5 truly web safe fonts to choose from when designing a website. My wife told me this yesterday, I did not believe her at all…but we looked it up again and it is indeed true.

The five font families that are web safe for use with Microsoft and Apple’s browsers are:

  1. sans-serif
  2. serif
  3. monospace
  4. cursive
  5. fantasy

How can this be it is the year 2007, we have guided ballistic missiles that could hit a goat on Mt. Everest, the Tesla roadster, hydrofoils, robots, Airwolf, we cracked the human genome, built the Panama Canal, we can make our own islands, and yet on a technological level have not evolved past FIVE FONTS!?!?

I find it utterly absurd, petty and ridiculous that the operating system/browser designers of the planet cannot get together for even five minutes and agree on a universal font system to be supported by even the major 5-10 internet browsers in use.

It is great for all of the graphic designers that there is more work for them to do, but it also must be a greater headache when designing then it need be. I wonder how many hours of work are lost or how many more are required to design a website, just because companies are so proprietary. Companies have become so set in doing things their way, so propriety “because they can” without adequate consideration for the direct and indirect costs/externalities they are imposing on their own customers.

Does being non-cooperative with other companies when developing standards within an industry/market in order to chase the almighty dollar and appease who ever happens to be the stock holders really make a better product for the end user/consumer? I think that it may depend on the market or product, but on a macro level this type of non-cooperation in the creation of industry standards can retard the development of economies significantly.

Think about the HD DVD vs Blue Ray DVD battle going on in the DVD & DVD player market right now. Haven’t we done this already? Does anybody remember VHS vs. Betamax? Have the companies no memory of the past at all? Or better yet do they think that consumers have no memory of the past? Actually it is pretty clear that they do. Companies are really gambling that their standard will win…but because of the perceived larger payoff of being able to set “the standard” and gain a slice of revenue from every DVD produced in the future! Yeah well what happens to the company that “loses” the standard war and the customers that have to get rid of their TVs/DVD players? What are the environmental effects of of conducting such standards wars in different industries? Do millions more TVs & DVD players end up making their way to landfills sooner and in greater volume then they would have if a industry standard had been reached?

What do you think? Is it ethical for companies to:

  • Not serve their customer in the best way, when it is well within their means to do so?
  • Slow technological progress through proprietary competition of standards and thus economic progress?
  • Gamble with millions of dollars of their customer’s and stockholders money?
  • Force customers to choose a product that may be useless in the future?

Sans the ethical implications of such business decisions like not standardizing fonts or other such industry standards, my general feeling is we still have a long way to go and that if it wasn’t all about money…the road wouldn’t have to be as long as it is.

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As the average temperature of the earth rises, the amount of pollen that plants (such as ragweed) release also rises. You may have noticed that your allergies this year are much worse then they have ever been. For me it was pretty hard NOT to notice, my reaction to the pollen was so severe in the past two weeks that I have come down with heinous cases of bronchitis and pink eye. Instead of being outside mountain biking, rollerblading, strolling Immi, or racing my RC cars, I am huddled indoors coughing my throat raw.

Keep in mind that global warming is only one of many factors contributing to the allergy problem. If you live in an area of high or rapid rates of growth like Northern Virginia, odds are that your allergies will be even worse. As more people have moved into the area to take advantage of location, booming real estate, the tech corridor, the post 9/11 government defense contracting jobs boom they have brought more cars and more pollution. Increased pollution from car exhaust means that there is more fine particulate matter floating about in the air to catch, suspend and distribute pollen through out the local environment.

What does it all mean? The upshot is that global warming and pollution are contributing to a worsening of the general quality of life for people on earth. It’s not just an increase severe weather, the sea level, or general air quality. There are other externality effects like increases in pollen and more severe, longer allergy seasons. Additionally, it is no wonder that asthma rates have increased over the past years.

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New dynamic technologies and the new media (ie. wiki, blogs, podcasts, social networking sites, etc) are reshaping the way that companies interact with the world. There has been a major paradigm shift in the ways people work, communicate, conduct marketing initiatives, retain intellectual capital, and build specialized knowledge both inside a company as employees, and outside of their company as individuals.

The Difference Between Old Media and the New Media
Old media (newspapers, magazines, tv) is marked by its passive nature. The user must go buy what is produced, consume it, and dispose of it eventually. The only interaction the user has with the old media is to read or watch it. Old school media can also be very environmentally unfriendly, requiring millions of trees per year to produce. Old media is relatively costly to produce (printing), maintain (subscription costs), distribute (to newsstands), and dispose of (recycling). The new media has a more active or engaging nature, where the user can access the media swiftly through a computer or portable device and participate in the evolution of the information more fluidly. It appeals to younger generations because it is media instant gratification. Many of the costs of these new media are very low because there is little or no printing, subscription, distribution or recycling costs. All you really need is an internet connection and a varying degree of technical knowledge.

Consumers Become Active Participants in the Evolution of Companies and Products
Web 2.0 has in essence leveled the playing field for the average consumer significantly. The end user of a product is no longer just an end user. Now individuals who use technology are empowered to influence the rest of the market. A few popular blogs with negative or positive posts about a product or company can have a real impact on purchases and help build positive or negative equity in a company’s brand. In Japan there is already a system of consumer driven blogs that is accessible via cell phones. The cell phones are used to obtain in store reviews/ratings through the blogs and the result is changes in purchasing behavior at the point of purchase. More informed decisions are being made by more educated consumers with quicker and easier access to information via new media. The upshot is that companies will be pushed to produce increasingly diverse array of products for emerging niches in Web 2.0 and they will have to do it before their competitors do.

New Media Case Study: Blog Explosion
The recent statistics from blog-tracking site Technorati showed that there are over 50 million blogs and counting. The half a million mark was reached on July 31st 2006. The blogosphere has been doubling in size every 6 months or so. It is already over 100 times bigger than it was just 3 years ago. On average, there are 1.6 million posts per day, or 18.6 posts per second. That’s 175,000 new blogs per day worldwide. In January of 2004, the blogosphere was doubling at a rate of once ever 120 days, which is about once every 4 months. By July of 2004, the blogosphere was doubling every 180 days, or about once every 6 months. Today, the blogosphere is doubling in size every 200 days, or about once every 6 and a half months. David Sifry estimates that he will be posting about the 100 millionth blog tracked sometime in February of 2007. To learn more about these statistics read the David’s State of the Blogosphere for August 2006. There are some really important metrics new media in this report.

Businesses Take Initiative and Seize Web 2.0 Opportunities
Businesses are recognizing this new media paradigm shift as an opportunity and are taking the initiative to grow with these powerful dynamic technologies. New media marketing campaigns are being spawned cross-departmentally, including comprehensive blog strategies and podcast plans. These campaigns actively engage an ever-growing technology mediated customer base and are gaining real time feedback to improve products on the fly. Efficient and pliable wiki are being deployed internally to eliminate redundancies, build intellectual capital retention systems and knowledge systems for highly specialized teams, work groups and departments. External wiki are being utilized to facilitate remote work processes with contractors and partnered companies. In many instances the wiki are being deployed company wide.

What Can Utilizing New Media/Web 2.0 Mean For A Company?

  • More revenue
  • Better overall efficiency
  • Less redundancy
  • Streamlined work processes
  • Higher quality products & services
  • New products
  • More diverse range of offerings
  • Better brand recognition
  • Low cost or free PR & marketing
  • Increased intellectual capital retention
  • Reduced intellectual capital flight
  • More organizing information and data
  • Ability to build “knowledge systems”
  • Fluid inter-departmental communication
  • Less strain on email systems and servers
  • Ability to train new employees faster and better
  • Happier employees
  • Lower employee turnover
  • Reduced HR Costs

Diversifying Strategies with New Media
Rather then picking just one of the new media, comprehensive and diversified sets of media are being utilized by companies to meet their strategic business and marketing objectives. What is critically important to remember is that no single type of media is necessarily a one shot solution for any business to achieve it’s goals. Each piece of the new media must be understood and applied for the right purposes, in the proper way and at the right time. To understand how each piece fits in with your company the proper research and analysis should be done first. Selecting the right tools and technologies is equally important to achieving successful new media initiatives.

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